This is an answer to the question What is the likelihood of making 1 million dollars from starting/being in a startup vs. trying to be an author of a best selling book? on Quora.

Firstly, if you want to make 1 million dollars, the highest likelihood of success is by working hard on your everyday job and saving every penny possible. This is true in most professions in developed countries.

But if you must choose between a startup and a bestseller, then there are some things to take into consideration.

What is your capital within these two areas? Do you have business knowledge within the field of your startup? Do you have an extensive network within the field? Have you read a few thousand books? Have you written for 10000 hours? Are you a famous person which are more likely to get published and sell books? Answers to these questions and other similar ones will give you a fair view on which option is best for you.

But there is one more thing which should be taken into consideration. It’s not just about what you might win. It is much more about what you will lose, since that is the most probable outcome.

In which of these cases is your loss worst? Is it the financial loss of an unsuccessful startup, or is it the loneliness of writing, and the lack of social contacts following that?

Also, which knowledge is more valuable to you? Is it the ability to write a book? Or the ability to run a company?

So, the choice should be about personal possibilities and preferences. But if we take a more objective view on the question?

I’d say that you should start a business.

Let’s take a look at writing. First, you need to read books, so that you have an understanding of what works and doesn’t in writing. Then you need to write. It will take a long time before you get proficient enough to write well. Gladwell is referring to the 10000 hours rule. When it comes to writing, I believe that it takes 10000 hours reading and 10000 hours writing, until proficiency.

Then, let’s say you write. Since it takes a lot of time to write, you really should have another job, unless you have an understanding spouse or some kind of heritage (but then you wouldn’t need to write that bestseller, would you). This other job might lead to you becoming weary and less likely to finish your book. Actually, most people writing a book never finishes it.

There is also the feedback problem with writing. Most of the time you get feedback once for each book, or perhaps once for each rewrite of a book. Well, of course you might pester your friends with unfinished manuscripts, but then you will most probably notice a slight unwillingness from their side after a while. The absence of feedback will most certainly harm your chances of writing a great book.

If you try to publish your book the traditional way, then you send your manuscript to publishers. If you are lucky someone will read your manuscript for more than a few seconds at these publisher houses. So, if the first reader actually reads your manuscript and likes what she reads, then a few more persons will have to agree on publishing your book. Most books are never published.

Disregarding how many times you have rewritten your book, the lecteurs will suggest major changes to it. Since you have no authority at all within the field, you must accept these changes, disregarding what you have learned by reading a few thousand books. So you make another rewrite, based on the whim of your lecteurs. But if your lecteurs are not bestselling authors (they never are), your book’s chances of becoming a bestseller hasn’t improved much by that.

So, you have a book written and published. Then you need a lot of luck in order for your book to be picked up and bought by book buyers. A vast majority of books don’t cover their costs. Yet another step where the odds are against you.

Today, you also have the possibility to self publish your book. This raises your odds from abysmally small to slightly abysmally small. By self publishing you may choose to publish more unique books, for the good and the bad of it.

There are so many persons involved in the creation of a bestseller, that I don’t recommend anyone to try. If you must write a book, then write it. But if you do it for the money, there are much more lucrative businesses elsewhere, like cleaning toilets and changing diapers.

Conclusively, it is much better to start a business. If your business ever becomes a success, then you can write a bestseller about that.